Sunday, March 1, 2009

Who do you believe?

That unredeemed ornery rascal of a rock’n’roller, Bo Diddley, wrote a song which has been covered by millions of would-be rockers:


I walk 47 miles of barbed wire,
I use a cobra-snake for a necktie,
I got a brand new house on the roadside,
Made from rattlesnake hide,
I got a brand new chimney made on top,
Made out of a human skull,
Now come on take a walk with me, Arlene,
And tell me, who do you love?


Now, I have walked a few thousand miles up and down ad agency and client corridors, and once I did think of using cobra-snake-lookalike for a necktie but agency dress codes prevented me from doing so (maybe I was just plain chicken!). And now that I am out of the agency-client game, I know who I do trust, and who I would believe.

These thoughts were provoked by an ad I saw some weeks ago, in which Sachin Tendulkar was being measured for a suit, and the voice-over and supers went something like this: "Every now and again, a player appears on the scene… who will change the way the game is played."

The client sign-off showed Royal bank of Scotland, with their slogan “Make it happen TM”. (I have taken the text out of the bank’s website - http://www.rbs.in/ - and there may be some slight differences between the site text and the ad voice-over, supers, etc. But these differences are not at all significant.) The website also went on to say: “Like RBS ambassador Sachin Tendulkar, we believe that actions speak louder than words. That's why we've become one of the largest banks in the world with a reputation for helping customers get things done.”

RBS, RBS…that set me thinking and then rushing to my comp. I remembered having read a whole lot of bad news, real bad news about RBS from about mid 2008 till earlier this week. A little digging around and here’s some of them, the latest one first:

1. From The Guardian, Wednesday - 28 January 2009 headlined “Pay packet envy: the greed that drove the City's bonus culture; The men who made millions while the banking system crumbled” (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/28/executive-salaries-banking)

It was Valentine's Day and for Sir Fred Goodwin there was a very special present. The youthful banking executive was one of elite group of Royal Bank of Scotland directors handed bonus cheques totalling £2.5m as reward for clinching control of the ailing high street lender NatWest.

The payments created a furore but Sir George Mathewson, the plain talking RBS executive who had led the eight month campaign, could not understand what the fuss was about. "They wouldn't give you bragging power in a Soho wine bar," an unrepentant Mathewson said.

The bonuses helped drive RBS along its road to ruin. The bank's executives got the deal-making bug and embarked on an orgy of acquisitions, gobbling up more than 24 companies in the next eight years - culminating in the £50bn record-breaking takeover of ABN Amro just as the credit crunch started to bite.

Nine years on, the bonuses help illustrate what happens when pay deals reward risk taking and highlight the gulf in pay between boardroom bosses and those who work in the City, earning even bigger bonuses through private pay deals that do not have to be published.

"Without question my research points to the fact large companies seem to have been paid for getting bigger not better. We saw that with RBS," said Peter Hahn, a fellow in finance at Cass Business School.

2. From The Guardian - Monday 26 January 2009 – headlined “Police asked to investigate RBS for mis-selling” (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/26/police-investigate-rbs)

Police are under pressure to launch an investigation into the Royal Bank of Scotland's £12bn rights issue after a complaint by a member of the Scottish parliament.

The Lothian and Borders force confirmed yesterday it was conducting inquiries into whether the bank fraudulently sought investment from shareholders, many of them UK pension funds, knowing that the bank was insolvent.

3. From The Guardian - Monday 26 January 2009 – “Twenty-five people at the heart of the meltdown ...” (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/26/road-ruin-recession-individuals-economy)

Fairly prominent in this list is Sir Fred Goodwin, former RBS boss. Here’s what the article has to say about him:

Once one of Gordon Brown's favourite businessmen, now the prime minister says he is "angry" with the man dubbed "Fred the Shred" for his strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland, which has left the bank staring at a £28bn loss and 70% owned by the government. The losses will reflect vast lending to businesses that cannot repay and write-downs on acquisitions masterminded by Goodwin stretching back years.

4. From guardian.co.uk - January 19, 2009 – headline “Government takes 68% stake in Royal Bank of Scotland” (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/19/rbs-second-bailout)

Loss-making Royal Bank of Scotland pledged to step up lending to big corporates and lend a further £6bn to a wide range of customers as part of an agreement with the government to increase its stake in the troubled Edinburgh-based bank to 68%.

As shares in RBS lost two thirds of their value to close at just 11.9p today, the government altered the terms of the October bail out to allow preference shares - which do not carry voting rights - to convert into ordinary shares almost immediately.

5. December 30, 2008 – headlined “Thirty years on - the truth at last” (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5415971.ece)

December 31, 2038: Royal Bank of Scotland came close to being fully nationalised as early as autumn 2008, according to documents made public for the first time today. (Blogger’s note: the 2038 dateline is exactly as it appears on the website!)

…The documents confirm speculation at the time that the Bank of England, the FSA and Mr Darling were “exceptionally worried” about the ability of RBS to roll over its short-term funding in money markets by early October.

One handwritten note from an unnamed Bank of England official to the Chancellor, dated Thursday, October 2, 2008, reads: “RBS is having enormous difficulty raising short-term funds... danger of confidence draining away completely... there is a real question over whether it will be able to open its doors for business next week.”

6. From November 29, 2008 – “Sir Fred Goodwin takes the hit as shareholders spurn £15billion rights issue by bank (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5254438.ece)

Sir Fred Goodwin, the outgoing chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland, made a personal loss on paper of £162,000 yesterday after subscribing for his full entitlement of shares in the bank's disastrous £15billion rights issue.

As expected, the Government was left with almost all the new shares, giving it a stake of 58 per cent in the enlarged bank, after existing shareholders shunned the emergency capital-raising. Only 0.24 per cent of the new shares were taken up, some of them by RBS directors who had promised to take up their rights in full before it became apparent that the deal was a flop.

7. From guardian.co.uk – November 6, 2008 – headline “Downgrades hit Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland” (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2008/nov/06/barclay-royalbankofscotlandgroup)

More downgrades for the banks today.

Panmure Gordon analyst Sandy Chen has repeated his sells on Barclays - down 8.5p to 187.4p - and Royal Bank of Scotland - 1.8p lower at 67.2p. Both these banks bounced slightly yesterday on talk they would benefit from a UK rate cut, and had been oversold. Chen does not agree. He said:

"There has been a slew of news [on credit default swaps] recently – little of it positive. We see [Barclays and RBS] as most exposed to further losses as credit events gain momentum…”

8. From November 5, 2008 – headline “Royal Bank of Scotland faces its first full-year loss, new chief admits (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5084726.ece)

Stephen Hester, Royal Bank of Scotland’s new chief executive, admitted yesterday that the troubled bank could report its first full-year loss as he attempts to sell £15 billion of new stock to disgruntled investors. …Mr Hester, who takes over from the ousted Sir Fred Goodwin in January, said that he would take the bank back to its retail and commercial banking roots by stripping out “excess leverage”. Asked about claims by analysts that the bank would make a full-year loss, he said: “I’m not wildly disputing what you claim analysts are saying.”

9. From October 15, 2008 – headline “Shredding credibility at Royal Bank of Scotland (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article4945074.ece)

Under normal circumstances, if a company expands recklessly, faces collapse and needs an emergency rescue, the very least you can do, on showing the executives responsible the door, is to clean out those non-executives who failed in their job of restraining such over-enthusiasm.

Yet I am told there is no intention to dispose of the 14 - count them - 14 non-executives at Royal Bank of Scotland immediately, most of whom sat back while Sir Fred “The Shred” Goodwin galloped madly over the precipice with last summer's purchase of ABN Amro.

10. From Timesonline.co.uk - October 13, 2008 – headlined “Royal Bank of Scotland under state control” – (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4932250.ece)

The Chancellor will move to take control of the Royal Bank of Scotland today by injecting £20 billion of taxpayers’ money….Sir Fred Goodwin is expected to step down today as chief executive of the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). Andy Hornby, the chief executive of HBOS, also faces an uncertain future.

RBS will offer its shareholders the right to buy £15 billion of new shares, the vast majority of which are expected to be left with the Government, giving it a 60 per cent stake.


And my favourite, the killer piece of them all:

11. From The Guardian - 24 January, 2009 – headlined “Sir Fred, just say sorry” (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/24/fred-goodwin-rbs)

Goodwin's descent from hero to zero is as shocking as his bank's finances. This week it was announced that the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) had suffered a £28bn loss - the biggest loss a company has recorded in Britain. Shares crashed by two-thirds overnight. Now it is valued at £5bn compared with last year's £50bn - and this despite the government pouring in £20bn in bail-out money.

He had been Gordon Brown's favourite banker, until the prime minister turned on him this week, saying that RBS had been "irresponsible" under Goodwin's control (and it has to be said on Brown's watch). Over the past year, Goodwin received salary and bonuses amounting to £4.2m.

In 2002, he was named Forbes Businessman of the Year - the ultimate business accolade. Back then he was known as Fred the Shred for the incisive way he had shredded staff numbers to boost profits. Today Goodwin, who formally leaves his post on 31 January, is known as the "disgraced Fred the Red". Goodwin can take some comfort in an annual £579,000 pension.

Phew! If that’s not a litany of woes and wrongdoing, I don’t know what is. Caveat: the venom, the sarcasm, and the caustic language are there in the originals – I haven’t added anything; didn’t have to.

The RBS people in India obviously knew all this, and more, that the media back home was saying about them. So question 1: Did they assume that their TG in India was ignorant of all that’s going on about the bank back home in the UK? Or did they assume that the advertising will sufficiently counteract the bad PR they were getting?

RBS sure did change the way the game is played, and are now in the process of paying for it. They did make it happen – seriously. They did get things done, for their shareholders, their customers, and the poor sods of taxpayers out there in the UK.

Is this the kind of bank you wish to make things happen for you?

Question 2: Why did RBS India release this ad? Surely their PR and ad agencies would have told them not to do it – if I’ve read the news articles, all that the ad will raise with me is a nasty snigger. I guess people would believe editorial more than advertising – so why do this?

The ruins of the reputation of RBS are surely made out of human skull.

Oh, in case you wondered, Sir Fred didn’t apologise. Read this:

Telegraph.co.uk - 20 Nov 2008 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/rbs/3490576/RBS-issues-sweeping-apology-to-shareholders.html)

Headline: RBS issues sweeping apology to shareholders

Sir Tom McKillop, chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland, has issued a sweeping apology for the dramatic implosion of the banking giant.

Sir Tom told a shareholders meeting in Edinburgh to approve a £20bn capital raising: "Both personally and in the office I hold, I am profoundly sorry about the position that we have reached".

RBS has been attacked by employees and shareholders who have said the bank's management has not apologised for its near-collapse in October, which put tens of thousands of jobs at risk. RBS has already announced 3,000 redundancies.

Sir Tom attempted to answer that criticism, telling shareholders gathered at the Church of Scotland general assembly hall on the Mound in Edinburgh: "The buck stops with me as chairman and with the leadership of the Group. Accountability has been allocated and fully accepted."

RBS was told by the Government to raise an extra £20bn of capital to bolster its balance sheet. When the bank unveiled the fund raising on October 13 it said Sir Tom would step down as chairman of RBS in April, while Sir Fred Goodwin, chief executive, leaves today. Sir Fred has said he is "sad" about the dire state of the bank but so far has declined to apologise to shareholders and employees.

For he’s a jolly good fellow…

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